Political and economic reforms

In 1994 the EPRDF adopted Ethiopia’s third constitution in 40 years; it was promulgated in 1995, creating the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. This constitution enshrined the principles of regionalism and ethnic autonomy, devolving power to regional states, several of them coalitions of smaller ethnic groups. It also enshrined, for the first time as a constitutional principle, national ownership of land. The country’s first multiparty elections were also held in 1995, but they were boycotted by most opposition groups in protest against the harassment, arrests, and other actions instigated by the EPRDF-led government. As a result, the multiethnic EPRDF easily retained control of the federal government and most of the regional states. Negasso Gidada, a Christian Oromo who had served as minister of information in the transitional government, became president, and Meles became prime minister. The ethnic balance of the country was reflected in the careful selection of members for the Council of Ministers.

The economic-reform efforts that had begun in 1991 were somewhat successful, as the economy showed improvement in the mid-1990s. However, some aspects of reform, such as privatization of state-owned enterprises, progressed slowly, and the government’s cautious approach to economic liberalization remained an obstacle for foreign investment, as did the issue of nationalized property, which continued to be a source of consternation.

War with Eritrea

In 1998 simmering border tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia erupted into war. At the heart of the dispute was some 250 square miles (640 square km) of land near Badme, but the conflict quickly spread to two other areas, Zela Ambesa and the important Eritrean port city of Assab. A cease-fire signed in June 2000 provided for a UN mission (United Nations Mission in Eritrea and Ethiopia; UNMEE) to monitor the cease-fire and deploy troops in a buffer zone between the two countries while the border was being demarcated. A peace agreement signed in Algeria in December ended the conflict, although relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea remained tense, and UNMEE troops stayed to monitor the truce and supervise the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Eritrean territory. The Ethiopian government was not pleased with the border demarcation proposed in 2002, as the town of Badme was awarded to Eritrea, and Meles protested this decision. Discussions continued during the next few years. UNMEE troops remained until July 2008 but ultimately left with the issue of demarcation still unsettled.

Dissent, protests, and increasing oppression

Meanwhile, the EPRDF remained in power into the 2000s, although it was weakened by internal dissent in 2001 when the EPRDF’s TPLF faction split over the government’s anticorruption policies and Meles’s embrace of more-liberal economic policies. The TPLF members who opposed Meles were purged from the party and held under house arrest. President Negasso sided with the TPLF splinter group, and, as a result, he was ousted from the leadership of his own party, the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO). He did, however, keep his position as federal president until his term was up in September 2001. He was succeeded by Girma Wolde-Giorgis, who, like Negasso, was an Oromo, although he was not affiliated with the OPDO. Against the backdrop of political infighting, drought and famine continued to periodically plague the country, particularly in 2003, when the crisis was exacerbated by widespread incidence of waterborne illnesses and a malaria epidemic.

A strong performance by opposition parties in the May 2005 elections greatly increased the number of seats they held in the legislature. The EPRDF remained in power but with less of a majority and amid questionable circumstances. Although the elections were initially found to have been generally credible, there were reports of voter intimidation and other problems, and allegations of irregularities from more than half the country’s electoral constituencies delayed the announcement of the results for eight weeks. Accusations of fraud, as well as the final outcome of the elections, led to considerable protests and demonstrations in Addis Ababa; ensuing clashes between protesters and security forces left more than three dozen people dead, hundreds injured, and 3,000 arrested. This was followed in November by additional rioting, which left dozens more dead. Some of the victorious opposition candidates refused to take their legislative seats, in protest against the questionable circumstances surrounding the elections and aftermath; some were arrested for “violent activities aimed at subverting the constitutional order.” Tensions continued into the next year, with thousands of Ethiopians—including activists, journalists, and other legislators—being detained across the country. Many detainees were released periodically throughout 2006, often without having had any charges filed against them. In May 2006 the EPRDF reached an agreement with the two primary opposition political parties, which then took their seats in the legislature.

More than a decade after his ouster, former Derg ruler Mengistu and his legacy still weighed heavily in the Ethiopian consciousness. To the dismay of many, Mengistu continued to live in exile in Zimbabwe, despite the Ethiopian government’s repeated attempts beginning in the 1990s to lobby for his extradition. Nevertheless, he was tried, in absentia, on charges of genocide for his role in the Red Terror campaign. In December 2006 he was found guilty, and the next year he was given a life sentence. Following a successful appeal from the prosecution, he was sentenced to death in May 2008.

Also in 2006, Ethiopia sent troops to neighbouring Somalia to defend that country’s beleaguered transitional government against rebel forces, and in December Ethiopia began a coordinated air and ground war there. Ethiopian troops had withdrawn from the country by January 2009, although they remained close to the Ethiopian-Somali border in case future intervention was deemed necessary. The intervention in the Somali crisis heightened the existing tensions with Eritrea, which supported Somalia’s rebels.

General elections were held in Ethiopia in May 2010. With the memories of the protests, violence, and deaths that followed the 2005 general elections still fresh in the minds of many Ethiopians, the political climate prior to the 2010 elections was somewhat subdued, although not free of controversy. Opposition groups complained that they were not given as much media coverage as the ruling EPRDF and that the government was harassing some opposition leaders. Those claims were supported by some international observers, who noted that not all political groups participating in the elections were afforded the same campaigning opportunities. Some international observers also noted evidence of voter intimidation and violence, although it was not considered to be enough of a factor to affect the final outcome of the elections, which were held on May 23. The EPRDF was overwhelmingly victorious in securing the majority of legislative seats, allowing Meles to remain prime minister. International observers deemed the electoral process to be organized and largely peaceful overall, yet some also noted that it did not quite meet international standards.

Meles’s health became the target of speculation in mid-2012, after he was conspicuously absent from the public eye. After weeks of such speculation, the government issued a comment in July, noting that Meles was doing well as he recuperated from an illness, which was not disclosed. Meles died on August 20, 2012, while he was abroad for medical treatment. He was succeeded by the deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, Hailemariam Desalegn.

The next year saw the regularly scheduled end of Girma’s second presidential term. On October 7, 2013, the parliament elected veteran diplomat Mulatu Teshome Wirtu to succeed him. Prior to his election as president, Mulatu had served as ambassador to Turkey since 2006. He also had held other ambassadorships and ministerial posts as well.

Although Ethiopia had seen considerable economic growth under EPRDF rule—the country’s economy was among the fastest growing in the world—that was contrasted by a worsening human rights record. In 2009 a harsh antiterrorism law had been passed, which in the following years was one of the tools used by the EPRDF-led government to suppress dissent. Numerous journalists and opposition activists were arrested, many of whom were charged with having violated that law; many others fled the country. In 2011 the government declared that two armed opposition groups as well as an opposition movement, Ginbot 7, were terrorist organizations and banned them, which led to a slew of arrests and antiterrorism charges against those accused of having interviewed or otherwise interacted with members of the proscribed groups. Prominent among those charged under the antiterrorism law was journalist Eskinder Nega, who was arrested in 2011 and later sentenced to 18 years in prison.

As the May 2015 general elections approached, opposition groups complained of harassment by the government. The government was also criticized for stifling the independent media and preventing any meaningful political discourse prior to the election. The ruling EPRDF and its affiliates won every legislative seat in the May 24 election, and on October 5 Hailemariam was unanimously reelected prime minister by the lower legislative house.

Meanwhile, a highly controversial plan by the government to expand Addis Ababa by linking it with areas in the neighbouring Oromia region generated months of protest by the Oromo people in 2015; the plan was abandoned in January 2016. More protests occurred in 2016—primarily in the Oromia and Amhara regions and, to a lesser extent, in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ region—fueled by issues such as the government’s questionable detentions of activists and journalists, feelings of political marginalization, and general discontent with the government. Security forces often responded harshly to protests and demonstrations, killing and wounding some of the protesters and arbitrarily arresting thousands more, which elicited condemnation from human rights groups. The government declared a state of emergency in October 2016; it was finally rescinded in August 2017.

Winds of change

In early 2018 the government surprised many by releasing thousands of prisoners, including Eskinder as well as other well-known individuals who had been detained for speaking out against the current administration. The government also announced that it was closing a notorious detention centre. The moves were intended to ease tensions and allow for political dialogue between the government and the opposition. Those events were followed by the equally surprising resignation of Hailemariam, which he announced on February 15, 2018; he agreed to stay on until a new prime minister could be appointed. Hailemariam stated that he hoped his resignation would help usher in political reform. The next day the government declared another state of emergency; it was expected to last six months and was intended to limit the ongoing unrest. On March 25 Eskinder and several other journalists and activists who had been recently released from prison were rearrested, allegedly for holding a gathering in violation of the declared state of emergency and having an older, prohibited version of the country’s flag.

The ruling EPRDF selected a successor to Hailemariam in late March. Abiy Ahmed, of the Oromo ethnic group, was first elected as chair of the ruling coalition on March 27, and he was then elected as prime minister by the lower legislative house on April 2 and was sworn in on the same day. Abiy was the first Oromo to hold the position of prime minister, and it was hoped that his ascent to the post would help calm the ongoing tensions between that group and the government. In his inaugural address, Abiy promised to improve conditions in the country, including strengthening the democratic process, fighting corruption, and growing the economy. He also vowed to work toward resolving the long-standing conflict with Eritrea.

In the months after his inauguration, Abiy quickly made efforts to fulfill his vows. Domestically, thousands more political prisoners were pardoned and released, including Eskinder and prominent opposition leader Andargachew Tsige. The government lifted its latest state of emergency ahead of schedule, on June 5. The government also removed Ginbot 7, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), and the OLF from its list of organizations deemed to be terrorist groups. In August the ONLF declared a cease-fire, and in October the government and the group signed a peace agreement that was intended to end the hostilities that had plagued the Ogaden region for more than 30 years. On the economic front, Abiy announced that the government would allow for some degree of privatization of some state-owned industries, such as the national airlines and the country’s telecommunications provider, in an effort to encourage domestic and foreign investment and to spur economic growth. The new developments as well as the pace at which they were unveiled surprised Ethiopians and the international community alike.

Perhaps nothing was as astonishing as the efforts of Abiy and the EPRDF-led government to achieve peace with Eritrea and the swiftness with which they moved. On June 5 Abiy announced that Ethiopia would finally honour the terms of the 2000 peace agreement that was meant to end its war with Eritrea; those terms included accepting and implementing the controversial 2002 ruling that demarcated the border between the two countries. That announcement led to a flurry of diplomatic overtures, and in early July Abiy and Eritrean Pres. Isaias Afwerki met in Eritrea. The two agreed to reopen their borders and reestablish ties between the two countries in the areas of diplomacy, trade, communications, and transportation. Most stunning was the joint statement from Abiy and Isaias on July 9 announcing that the state of war that had existed between their two countries for 20 years had come to an end.

Abiy formed a new cabinet in October 2018. It was notable not only for its smaller size—Abiy cut the number of posts in the cabinet from 28 to 20—but, more strikingly, because Abiy appointed women to half of the positions, providing the country with its first gender-balanced cabinet. Later that month President Mulatu resigned before the end of his six-year term, paving the way for a new president to be selected by lawmakers. On October 25 the parliament elected Sahle-Work Zewde to succeed him; she was sworn in the same day, becoming the first woman to serve as president of Ethiopia. Sahle-Work was an accomplished diplomat who had served as an ambassador for Ethiopia and had held several positions with the United Nations.

In October 2019 Abiy was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace. The Nobel Committee highlighted his actions in resolving Ethiopia’s long-running border dispute with Eritrea as an example of his efforts to attain peace.

In November 2019 the Sidamo people held a referendum to determine if there was enough support to create a new ethnic-based regional state for themselves, an option provided to all ethnic groups under the country’s constitution. The referendum passed, with more than 98 percent of Sidamo voters supporting the measure.

Challenges, ethnic tensions, and the Tigrayan conflict

Abiy’s reforms and changes, while welcomed and lauded by many in Ethiopia and abroad, were criticized by others for their scope and the speed at which they occurred. One of the consequences of the loosening of restrictions was that existing ethnic tensions that had been held to a simmer under the previous administration could now rise to the surface, the repercussions of which were sometimes violent, as were the actions of some who felt threatened by the rapid reforms. Shortly after Abiy took office, a grenade was detonated near him at a rally in June 2018; while he was not hurt, two others were killed and many more injured. A year later, several high-ranking officials were killed in what the government alleged was a failed coup attempt in the Amhara region. The murder in June 2020 of Oromo activist and songwriter Hachalu Hundessa, presumed by many to have been politically motivated. sparked weeks of protests and ethnic violence that led to more than 280 deaths.

Abiy’s reforms also had the effect of sidelining the TPLF—despite Tigrayans’ constituting less than 10 percent of the country’s population, the TPLF had previously been the dominant member of the ruling EPRDF coalition—and led to growing resentment from that party. Furthermore, many Tigrayan officials and military officers were caught in a crackdown on corruption during Abiy’s administration.

In late 2019 Abiy championed the dissolution of the EPRDF, the process of which the TPLF decried and refused to participate in. In its place Abiy formed the Prosperity Party, which included three of the four parties that had constituted the EPRDF—the TPLF refused to be a part of it—and several smaller regional ethnic-based parties that had opted to dissolve and join the new party.

The next round of general elections, scheduled to take place in 2020, were delayed for a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The TPLF and some other opposition leaders called the postponement a power grab, however, accusing Abiy of delaying the elections in an effort to remain in power past his mandate. In spite of the official delay, officials in the Tigray region held regional elections in September 2020, inflaming regional officials’ already tense relationship with the federal government. The next month, the federal government began withholding funds from the regional administration.

The animosity between Tigray and the federal government erupted into violence in early November. A communications blackout in the region made it difficult to know exactly how events were transpiring on the ground, but TPLF forces were accused of having attacked and looted federal military bases in the region, after which federal troops attacked and launched an invasion of Tigray. Almost immediately Tigrayan forces claimed that Eritrean troops were attacking them as well, which officials from both Ethiopia and Eritrea denied. In March 2021, however, Abiy admitted that Eritrean troops were involved in the conflict. Meanwhile, although Abiy had declared victory in Tigray after federal troops had taken the region’s capital, Mekele, in late November 2020, some fighting in the region continued on for months, displacing some two million Tigrayans and triggering famine conditions. All sides were accused of having committed human rights abuses during the conflict.

2021 elections, Tigrayan rebel advance, and expansion of fighting

It was against this backdrop of conflict upon which the delayed federal elections were held on June 21, 2021, though not across the entire country. In addition to Tigray, polls were not held in the Somali and Harari regions, the election board citing insecurity and logistical problems as the reason; elections were scheduled to be held in the latter two areas in September. In Oromia, elections were held but opposition parties in the region boycotted the polls. When results were released in July, they showed that the Prosperity Party had won an overwhelming majority of the contested parliament seats.

Meanwhile, during the week of the elections, fighting escalated and Tigrayan forces launched attacks heading toward Mekele. On June 28, federal troops and interim government officials abruptly withdrew from the capital and the broader Tigray region. They were quickly followed by Tigrayan forces, who retook the capital and other areas in the region. The same day, the federal government declared a unilateral cease-fire, citing humanitarian reasons. Fighting continued, though, and in July it was clear that the conflict had drawn in additional groups and had spread to other regions. In August the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), a group of insurgents that had splintered from the OLF, announced that they had formed an alliance.