Ozone layer recovery

The recognition of the dangers presented by chlorine and bromine to the ozone layer spawned an international effort to restrict the production and the use of CFCs and other halocarbons. The 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer began the phaseout of CFCs in 1993 and sought to achieve a 50 percent reduction in global consumption from 1986 levels by 1998. A series of amendments to the Montreal Protocol in the following years was designed to strengthen the controls on CFCs and other halocarbons. By 2005 the consumption of ozone-depleting chemicals controlled by the agreement had fallen by 90–95 percent in the countries that were parties to the protocol.

During the early 2000s, scientists expected that stratospheric ozone levels would continue to rise slowly over subsequent decades. The size of the Antarctic ozone hole reached its greatest extent in 2000, when it spanned 29.9 million square km (11.5 million square miles); by 2021 its area had shrunk to 24.8 million square km (9.6 million square miles). Indeed, some scientists contended that as levels of reactive chlorine and bromine declined in the stratosphere, the worst of ozone depletion would pass. Factoring in variations in air temperatures (which contribute to the size of ozone holes), scientists expected that continued reductions in chlorine loading would result in smaller ozone holes above Antarctica after 2040.

A 2018 United Nations report estimated that the Antarctic ozone hole would close slowly and stratospheric ozone concentrations would return to 1980 values by the 2060s. Above the Arctic, ozone levels are expected to return to 1980 values by the mid-2030s. The expected increases in ozone would be gradual primarily because of the long residence times of CFCs and other halocarbons in the atmosphere. Total ozone levels, as well as the distribution of ozone in the troposphere and stratosphere, would also depend on other changes in atmospheric composition—for example, changes in levels of carbon dioxide (which affects temperatures in both the troposphere and the stratosphere), methane (which affects the levels of reactive hydrogen oxides in the troposphere and stratosphere that can react with ozone), and nitrous oxide (which affects levels of nitrogen oxides in the stratosphere that can react with ozone).

Scientists in 2014 observed a small increase in stratospheric ozone—the first, they thought, in more than 20 years—which they attributed to worldwide compliance with international treaties regarding the phaseout of ozone-depleting chemicals and to upper stratospheric cooling because of increased carbon dioxide. Upon more thorough study, however, scientists in 2016 announced that stratospheric ozone concentrations had actually been increasing in the upper stratosphere since 2000 while the size of the Antarctic ozone hole had been decreasing. Overall ozone concentrations away from the poles have continued to fall since 1998; however, a 2018 study showed that declines in ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere contrasted with gains made in the upper stratosphere between 60° N and 60° S. Another sign of the ozone layer’s recovery occurred in September 2019, when scientists recorded the smallest ozone hole since 1982 (some 16.3 million square km [6.3 million square miles] at its peak extent) above Antarctica. (In 1982 the ozone hole’s peak extent was a little less than 16.1 million square km [6.2 million square miles].)

Studies note that continued reductions in ozone-depleting chemicals that follow the schedule proposed by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-up agreements are expected to result in a return to 1980-level ozone concentrations above the poles by the middle of the 21st century, perhaps as early as 2040. A 2023 report by the United Nations noted that the Antarctic and Arctic ozone holes are expected to recover by 2066 and 2045, respectively.

Since ozone is a greenhouse gas, the breakdown and anticipated recovery of the ozone layer affects Earth’s climate. Scientific analyses show that the decrease in stratospheric ozone observed since the 1970s has produced a cooling effect—or, more accurately, that it has counteracted a small part of the warming that has resulted from rising concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases during this period. As the ozone layer slowly recovers in the coming decades, this cooling effect is expected to recede.