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Keys to the White House
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Keys to the White House

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Written by
Allan J. Lichtman
Professor of History, American University, Washington, D.C. Author of The Keys to the White House, Prejudice and the Old Politics: The Presidential Election of 1928, and others.
Allan J. Lichtman
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Last Updated: • Article History

Editor’s note: This article was published in 2008, when the Keys to the White House forecast Barack Obama’s win. Since then, Lichtman’s model successfully predicted the 2012 election. In 2016, through an American University press release, Lichtman claimed that his model’s prediction of Donald Trump’s victory reflected the outcome of the presidential race, not of the popular vote, which Trump lost. The Keys to the White House accurately forecast the outcome of the 2020 election. In 2024 Lichtman’s model incorrectly predicted a win for Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump. In an interview with the Guardian, Lichtman explained that his ...(100 of 661 words)

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