compellence

compellence, the ability of one state to coerce another state into action, usually by threatening punishment. American economist Thomas C. Schelling, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2005, coined the word in his book Arms and Influence (1966). Schelling described compellence as a direct action that persuades an opponent to give up something that is desired. He distinguished compellence from deterrence, which is designed to discourage an opponent from action by threatening punishment.

Scholars have long argued about the most effective way to compel action. Schelling’s work, though groundbreaking, is not without its critics. Schelling focused on the threat of escalating violence against civilian targets, but American political scientist Robert Pape contended that compellence depends on making enemies feel that their military forces are vulnerable. Other scholars argue that carefully targeted economic sanctions can influence the behaviour of other states. In these cases, nonmilitary tools of statecraft assist national security objectives.

Compellence and deterrence are both forms of coercion. Many scholars believe that it is more difficult to compel than to deter. First, deterrence is less provocative, because the deterring state need only set the stage for action. It incurs little cost by making the threat. Indeed, costly actions are precisely what deterrence is supposed to prevent. Compellence, on the other hand, requires some form of costly action or a commitment to act. Second, the state that is the target of compellence may fear for its reputation if it complies with a threat. The targets of deterrent threats find it easier to “save face,” because they do not have to act to comply. They can simply stay put and pretend that the deterrent threat had no impact on their behaviour. Third, forcing states to act is difficult, because states are large, complex bureaucracies. They move more slowly than individuals, and slowness may be confused with reluctance to comply.

There are two basic forms of compellence: diplomacy and demonstration. Diplomatic, or immediate, compellence involves verbal threats and promises. Shows of force also assist this kind of coercion; realist scholars note that most diplomacy is underwritten by the unspoken possibility of military action. Demonstrative compellence involves a limited use of force coupled with the threat of escalating violence (which may also include full-scale war) to come if demands are not met. This kind of compellence is what Schelling referred to as the “diplomacy of violence.” A state does not unleash its full military potential; instead, it wages a limited campaign while instituting pauses to make the adversary consider the consequences if it does not comply.