At the start of the new millennium, Germany remained a leader in Europe and was the key to the continent’s security, stability, and prosperity. For more than 50 years, from Adenauer to Kohl, Schröder, and Merkel, Germans had played an important role in the creation of European institutions. Germany remains essential to the success of both the EU’s ambitious program of economic and political integration and its efforts to expand to include members from the former Soviet bloc. Germany will also be an important part of European efforts to craft a new security strategy, based on an enlarged NATO and a revised relationship with the United States.

In Germany’s parliamentary elections on September 27, 2009, Merkel’s mandate as chancellor was renewed, this time with the CDU-CSU and the FDP winning enough seats to form a coalition. The SPD, which since 2005 had served as the junior partner in a grand coalition with the CDU-CSU, thus was forced into opposition. Germany comfortably weathered the debt crisis that shook the rest of the euro zone, and Merkel and French Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy brokered a series of deals that were intended to contain the damage to the single currency.

While Merkel’s international presence was on the rise, she suffered domestically. The resignations of Pres. Horst Köhler in 2010, Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg in 2011, and Pres. Christian Wulff in 2012 were all blows to Merkel’s prestige. After Japan’s Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011, Merkel pledged to phase out nuclear power in Germany by 2022, but this move came too late to boost the CDU’s performance in state elections later that month. In contrast, the Green Party, which had long opposed nuclear power, captured enough support to form a government in Baden-Württemberg, a CDU stronghold since 1953. Joachim Gauck was elected president of Germany in March 2012, becoming the third person to hold that office in as many years. Unaffiliated with any political party, Gauck was a popular choice for the largely ceremonial role because of his history as a pro-democracy dissident in East Germany and his supervision of the Stasi archives after the fall of the Berlin Wall. For the first time since Germany’s reunification, the posts of both chancellor and president were held by individuals from the former East Germany.

As the campaign for the 2013 federal election began to intensify, the CDU coalition continued to suffer setbacks at the state level. Elections in Lower Saxony in January 2013 shifted the balance of power in the Bundesrat, giving the Greens and the SPD a majority in the upper house of Germany’s legislature. Peer Steinbrück, the SPD candidate for chancellor, had served as finance minister under Merkel in the grand coalition government from 2005 to 2009. While his performance in that role was widely praised, its connection with the Merkel administration made it difficult for Steinbrück to set himself apart from the incumbent. The sole televised debate between the candidates was inconclusive, and Merkel’s personal popularity was bolstered by strong economic numbers, which included an unemployment rate that was the lowest since reunification.

Her handling of the economy and her approach to the euro-zone debt crisis appeared to receive a huge endorsement from the German electorate when the CDU and CSU captured nearly 42 percent of the vote in the September 22, 2013, election, winning almost an absolute majority of the seats and setting up Merkel to become the third chancellor in the post-World War II era to win three elections. Because her government’s junior partner, the FDP, failed to reach the 5 percent threshold for representation for the first time in the postwar period, Merkel faced the possibility of forming another grand coalition with the SPD (which finished second with about 26 percent of the vote) or bringing the Green Party (which finished just behind The Left Party with about 8 percent) into government, though neither party was likely to come without a great deal of bargaining. After two months of negotiations, a grand coalition between the CDU-CSU and SPD was proposed, but it hinged on the approval of SPD members in an unprecedented party ballot. In December 2013 more than three-fourths of SPD voters voiced their support for the coalition. Among the stated priorities for the new government were the continued transitioning of Germany’s energy system to renewable sources and the adoption of the country’s first minimum wage law.

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Merkel’s third term was dominated by internal and external threats to the stability of the EU. The Syrian Civil War, ongoing strife in Libya, and unrest elsewhere in Africa and the Middle East precipitated an influx of refugees in Europe on a scale unseen since World War II. As countries reinstated internal border controls, it appeared that one of the hallmark achievements of the Schengen Agreement was under threat. Merkel remained committed to preserving the spirit of Schengen, however, and more than one million migrants entered Germany in 2015. In southern Europe, Greece chafed at the terms of its bailout package, and, in the east, Russian-backed insurgents continued to wage a destructive war in southeastern Ukraine. In February 2015 Merkel helped broker a cease-fire agreement between the warring parties in Ukraine, but the bloodshed continued, albeit at a slightly reduced pace.

The backlash against migrants fueled the rise of populist and nationalist parties across Europe, and in Germany the far-right Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland; AfD) shifted its platform from one that was primarily Euroskeptic to one that was expressly anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic. The move paid off, and the AfD posted a string of impressive results in local elections in 2016. The victories of the “leave” camp in the June 2016 “Brexit” vote and of Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election seemed to indicate that nationalist sentiment was on the ascent in Western democracies. Merkel, however, continued to position herself as a pragmatic centrist, having largely ceded the far right to the AfD, and in November 2016 she announced that she would seek a fourth term as chancellor.

When general elections were held on September 24, 2017, the CDU-CSU captured the most votes but fell far short of a majority. The SPD, which had governed with Merkel in a grand coalition since 2013, posted its worst showing in 70 years, winning barely 20 percent of the vote. The Greens and the Left secured representation in parliament with around 9 percent each, and the FDP returned to government with more than 10 percent of the vote. The AfD, which had narrowly missed the 5 percent cutoff point for parliamentary representation in 2013, surged to capture nearly 13 percent of the vote. SPD leader Martin Schulz declared that his party would not rejoin a coalition with Merkel, but, after talks between Merkel and the FDP collapsed in November 2017, Germany was faced with the possibility of fresh elections. Schulz consequently reversed himself, and months of additional negotiations between the SPD and CDU-CSU led to the forging of another grand coalition. As the largest party outside of the government, the AfD would be afforded certain parliamentary privileges traditionally conferred upon the main opposition party.

Support for Germany’s two traditional mainstream parties continued to erode throughout 2018, and Merkel was forced to confront a challenge from her own Bavarian allies. Horst Seehofer, Merkel’s interior minister and the head of the CSU, tendered his provisional resignation in June 2018 in a battle over Merkel’s immigration policy. The split threatened to topple the German government, but Merkel once again demonstrated her mastery of compromise, and Seehofer rescinded his resignation. High-profile squabbles between the conservative sister parties did little to help the CSU in its home territory, and in October 2018 the CSU posted its worst performance in over half a century in regional elections in Bavaria. Later that month a similarly dismal CDU performance in regional elections in Hesse led Merkel to announce that she would not seek reelection as CDU leader. She also declared her intention to step down as chancellor at the end of her term in 2021.

Without Merkel at the head of the CDU-CSU ticket, the two conservative parties performed poorly in the September 2021 general election. Combined, they captured less than one-fourth of the vote, the worst-ever result for the CDU-CSU alliance. With an extension of the grand coalition effectively ruled out by the SPD, Armin Laschet, Merkel’s successor as CDU leader, made overtures to the Greens and FDP in an attempt to form a government. Olaf Scholz of the SPD could claim a much stronger mandate based on his party’s performance, however, and, as Scholz began coalition talks, it became clear that the CDU-CSU would be moving into opposition for the first time since 2005. Laschet announced that he would step down as CDU leader, and Merkel remained in office in a caretaker capacity while the SPD-led government took shape. By the time she left office, Merkel had become Germany’s second longest-serving chancellor; her 16-year term was less than two weeks shorter than that of her onetime mentor, Helmut Kohl.

The chancellorship of Olaf Scholz (2021– )

On December 8, 2021, Scholz was sworn in as chancellor in a ceremony that was notable for his omission of the words “so help me God” from the oath of office. Scholz was the second German chancellor to modify the oath in such a way; the first was his mentor, Schröder. Scholz was not afforded any sort of honeymoon period, as an array of foreign and domestic issues required his immediate attention. A new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 variant had caused COVID-19 cases in Germany to surge to record levels in late 2021, and Scholz’s government struggled to address hesitancy among the one-fourth of Germans who had opted not to receive a vaccine. On the European Union’s eastern flank, Belarusian Pres. Alexander Lukashenko was retaliating against an EU sanctions regime by engineering a migrant crisis. Thousands of immigrants, primarily from the Middle East, were taken by airplane to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, and were then driven to the Belarusian frontier, where many were helped to cross into Poland or Lithuania by Belarusian border guards.

These issues abruptly faded into the background, however, as the greatest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War began to unfold along Russia’s border with Ukraine. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin had initiated a massive buildup of troops and equipment in Russia, Belarus, and Russian-occupied Crimea, and Western intelligence officials interpreted the move as the prelude to an invasion. Putin denied any such intent, and Scholz initially appeared reluctant to jeopardize commercial links with Russia, which was a vital gas supplier. Complicating matters further were Schröder’s extensive ties with Russian business concerns as well as his close personal relationship with Putin. On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and the United States and many EU countries called for immediate sanctions. Although Scholz had already suspended certification of Nord Stream 2, a controversial Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline, he cautioned against measures such as cutting off Russia from the SWIFT financial payment system. Within days, however, Scholz announced a dramatic pivot in Germany’s foreign policy and defense posture. At a special meeting of the Bundestag, Scholz declared that Russia’s aggression signaled a Zeitenwende (“new era”) in the history of Europe and that this watershed moment required an “unequivocal response” from Germany. Scholz reversed a post-World War II practice of refusing to send lethal weapons to active combat zones and dispatched 1,000 antitank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to aid the defenders of Ukraine. He also announced the creation of a €100 billion fund to improve and modernize the German military and committed to an ongoing annual investment of 2 percent of Germany’s gross domestic product on defense.